LPL Research

Grinding Higher | Weekly Market Performance | September 13, 2019

Equities continued to rise this week, sending the S&P 500 Index back over the 3,000 level and near its record high of 3,027.98 set July 26.

Market Insight Monthly | August 2019

U.S. economic data was mixed in August, reflecting the complicated macro economic environment in the midst of high trade uncertainty.

Another Up Weekon Trade Optimism | Weekly Market Performance | September 9, 2019

Equities rose during the holiday-shortened week as investors digested several geopolitical and trade headlines alongside a mixed batch of key economic data.

Corporate Earnings Outlook | Weekly Market Commentary | September 9, 2019

We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 Index on August 19 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. Until we get clarity...

The Dog Days of Summer | Client Letter | September 4, 2019

Fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid even as trade uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment.

U.S. Treasuries and the Yield Curve | Weekly Market Commentary | September 3, 2019

We recently reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2.5–2.75% to 1.75–2%. This significant reduction reflects what we consider the many somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic environments. Trade uncertainty, low inflation,...

Trade, Tweets, and Grand Tetons | Weekly Market Performance | August 23, 2019

Equities investors endured another volatile week, book-ended by positive trade vibes Monday, August 19, only to be thrust into negative territory Friday, August 23.

LPL’s U.S. Real GDP Forecast Change | Weekly Market Commentary | August 26, 2019

We have lowered our projections for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and operating earnings for the S&P 500 Index in 2019, as we noted in the August 19 Weekly Market Commentary: Tweaking Forecasts, and introduced...

Portfolio Compass | August 21, 2019

We have maintained our S&P 500 Index year-end fair value target of 3,000 despite our lowered economic and earnings growth forecasts amid trade uncertainty.

Tweaking Our Forecasts | Weekly Market Commentary | August 19, 2019

Recession fears from the yield curve inversion offset the boost from the tariff delay.

The New (Ab)normal | Weekly Market Commentary | August 12, 2019

Stocks endured significant volatility last week but showed some resilience Wednesday, August 7.

Stocks & Bonds: Turn Down For What! | Weekly Market Performance | August 16, 2019

Investors endured another volatile five-day stretch as the combination of trade uncertainty, plunging global bond yields, and conflicting messages between the United States and global economies further pressured stock prices.

Market Insight Monthly | July 2019

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in the second quarter, bolstered by consumer spending’s 2.9% contribution to growth.

Seasonal Slump? | Weekly Market Commentary | August 5, 2019

Last week’s stock market slide begs the question whether this August will fit its historical pattern of seasonal weakness.

The Fed’s Course Correction | Weekly Economic Commentary | August 5, 2019

The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 10 years

A Fed Rate Cut and the Economy | Client Letter | August 1, 2019

The Fed cut interest rates even though the economy is still growing, albeit slowly.

The Inaugural Rate Cut | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 29, 2019

The Fed is expected to cut rates this week for the first time in 10 years.

More On Fed Rate Cut Implications | Weekly Market Commentary | July 29, 2019

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to start an easing cycle this week, which has several investment implications.

A Consumer-Driven Quarter | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 22, 2019

We're encouraged by the strength in consumer spending, but economic growth needs to be broader.

Riding The Wave…For Now | Weekly Market Commentary | July 22, 2019

We are maintaining our year-end fair value target of 3,000 even though the index is very close to that level.

Portfolio Compass | July 19, 2019

Stock valuations remain favorable in our view, even with the S&P 500 Index near our year-end fair value target of 3,000.

Market Insight Quarterly | Second Quarter 2019

Stocks Rise, Rates Fall as Investors Position for Lower Rates

Q2 Earnings: Muddling Through | Weekly Market Commentary | July 15, 2019

We expect slightly positive earnings growth in the second quarter, with substantial drag from falling technology sector earnings.

Central Bank Check-In | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 15, 2019

Financial markets are focused on U.S. monetary policy, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) is only part of the story.

Market Insight Monthly | June 2019

U.S. economic data moderated in June as trade tensions plagued the global economy.

Job Market Stands Strong | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 8, 2019

Labor market conditions rebounded last month from a disappointing May, easing market worries about the impact of trade tensions on corporate hiring.

Job Market Stands Strong | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 8, 2019

Labor market conditions rebounded last month from a disappointing May, easing market worries about the impact of trade tensions on corporate hiring.

Taking Stock At The Halfway Mark | Weekly Market Commentary | July 8, 2019

Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank.

Taking Stock At The Halfway Mark | Weekly Market Commentary | July 8, 2019

Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank.

Longest Economic Expansion Ever | Client Letter | July 3, 2019

Trade tensions and market volatility couldn't stop the United States' record-setting economic expansion.

Moderate Growth Ahead | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 1, 2019

Fundamentals continue to support steady but moderate economic growth.

Stock Fundamentals Still Supportive | Weekly Market Commentary | July 1, 2019

We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year.

Midyear Outlook 2019: Printer-Friendly

We are pleased to announce the release of the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, with investment insights and market guidance through the end of 2019

Midyear Outlook 2019: Client Letter

We are pleased to announce the release of the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, with investment insights and market guidance through the end of 2019

Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets

The midyear report provides updated views of current fundamentals and factors that should persist as shorter-term concerns fade, while emphasizing the four primary pillars for investing policy, the economy, fixed income, and equities.

Portfolio Compass | June 19, 2019

Slower but still solid economic growth and modest inflationary pressure may be headwinds for fixed income.

Setting The Stage | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 17, 2019

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next policy decision June 19

Stocks and Fed Rate Cuts | Weekly Market Commentary | June 17, 2019

Stocks have benefited recently from increasing hopes of a Fed rate cut, although investors probably won't get one this week.

Market Insight Monthly | May 2019

U.S. economic data improved in May on balance, even as investors battled a resurgence in U.S.-China trade tensions.

A Record-Long Expansion | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 10, 2019

This economic expansion is now one of the longest on record.

Bull Market For Policy Uncertainty | Weekly Market Commentary | June 10, 2019

Policy uncertainty remains high, particularly around trade.

Trade and Tariffs | Client Letter | June 6, 2019

Our June letter discusses the U.S.-China trade dispute, tariffs on Mexican imports, and the possible effects on financial markets. It also explains why we think the S&P 500 may hit new highs later this year.

Five Forecasters | Weekly Market Commentary | May 28, 2019

Our Five Forecasters are collectively indicating that further economic growth and stock market gains appear likely.

Five Forecasters | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 28, 2019

Our Five Forecasters collectively point to economic growth ahead.

Bond Markets’ Signal to Stocks | Weekly Market Commentary | June 3, 2019

Worrisome signals from the bond market contributed to stocks’ first monthly decline of 2019.

The Baffling Bond Market | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 3, 2019

The bond market has been baffling recently.

Earnings Season Takeaways | Weekly Market Commentary | May 20, 2019

It appears an earnings recession has been averted and better earnings days lie ahead, though trade uncertainty is a huge wild card.

A Step Back On Trade | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 20, 2019

Investors aren't quite out of the woods yet with trade tensions.

Portfolio Compass | May 16, 2019

Lowered long-term muni view from Neutral/Positive to Neutral

Deal Or No Deal | Weekly Market Commentary | May 13, 2019

Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions caused stocks to sell off more than 2% last week.

The Power of Productivity | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 13, 2019

First quarter productivity rose at the fastest year-over-year pace since 2010.

Market Insight Monthly | April 2019

Green shoots appeared in U.S. economic data as the economy entered the second quarter. Leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year.

Sell In May? | Weekly Market Commentary | May 6, 2019

The May through October period has historically been the weakest six months for equities.

A High Bar For Lower Rates | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 6, 2019

Markets are positioning for the first Fed rate cut in 10 years.

Off to a Strong Start | Client Letter | May 2, 2019

The economy is off to a strong start in 2019! Click Read More to find out what LPL Research says about market fundamentals and what we might see the rest of 2019.

Stocks Reach Record Highs | Weekly Market Commentary | April 29, 2019

The S&P 500's new record high set last week ended a more than 7-month drought without one.

First Quarter’s GDP Surprise | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 29, 2019

First quarter GDP growth was surprisingly strong.

Fading Momentum | Weekly Market Commentary | April 22, 2019

U.S. stocks are sitting at the same levels they were seven months ago, but the path hasn’t been straight.

Green Shoots on Main Street | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 22, 2019

Our Beige Book Barometer climbed from a seven-year low.

Portfolio Compass | April 18, 2019

Lowered Stocks view from Neutral/Positive to Neutral; Lowered U.S. Equities view from Neutral/Positive to Neutral; Raised Bonds view from Negative/Neutral to Neutral

Market Insight Quarterly | First Quarter 2019

U.S. economy sent mixed signals amid uncertainty.

What’s Priced In | Weekly Market Commentary | April 15, 2019

After such a strong rally for stocks this year, you may be wondering what could drive stocks higher from here.

Too High or Too Low? | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 15, 2019

Signs of slowing global growth have fueled worries of tepid domestic inflation.

Market Insight Monthly | March 2019

U.S. economic data were mixed in March, although leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year.

Q1 Earnings Preview | Weekly Market Commentary | April 8, 2019

We expect roughly flat earnings for the first quarter, putting the seven-quarter streak of growth in jeopardy.

Signs of Spring | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 8, 2019

Leading indicators in jobs, manufacturing, and markets suggest economic acceleration.

Signals We See in Q1 2019 Results | Client Letter | April 4, 2019

Our April letter comments on the S&P 500 Index’s strong first quarter and steady but slower GDP growth.

The Stock Market’s Final Four | Weekly Market Commentary | April 1, 2019

This week we share our "Final Four Factors" for the stock market in 2019: 1-Policy, 2-the Economy, 3-Rates, and 4-Profits.

Our Final Four For The U.S. Economy | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 1, 2019

A rebound in global conditions, capital expenditures, and sentiment may help fuel growth.

Yields’ March Madness | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 25, 2019

Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month yield for the first time since 2007.

Balanced Risk Reward | Weekly Market Commentary | March 25, 2019

Following the stock market’s recent move higher, coupled with a slightly weaker economic and corporate profit outlook, the risk-reward trade-off in stocks has become less attractive.

Portfolio Compass | March 20, 2019

No changes.

An Attention-Grabbing Jobs Report | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 18, 2019

WEC Description: February’s job growth was disappointing, but it followed the biggest two-month gain since 2016.

Movin On Up (In Market Cap) | Weekly Market Commentary | March 18, 2019

Small cap stocks have performed well so far in 2019; however, we believe the environment is getting tougher.

Market Insight Monthly | February 2019

U.S. economic data were sound in February, even as confidence fell amid uncertainty from global trade and political headwinds.

Modest Pullback Or Something Bigger? | Weekly Market Commentary | March 11, 2019

Following such a strong rally since the December 24 lows, a pullback is reasonable to expect.

Main Street Sentiment At 7-Year Low | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 11, 2019

Our Beige Book Barometer has dropped to its lowest level since the 2011 European debt crisis.

Bull Market Reaches 10 Years | Client Letter | March 7, 2019

Please see our latest client letter, which discusses the bull market.

An Aging Cycle | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 4, 2019

Slow (but steady) growth and accommodative policy have made this expansion especially durable.

Five Key Questions | Weekly Market Commentary | February 25, 2019

Stocks may keep going higher, but the easy gains likely have been made.

Economic Data FAQs | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 25, 2019

We expect growth to stabilize as near-term headwinds subside.

Portfolio Compass | February 20, 2019

Upgraded precious metals view to neutral from negative/neutral.

Updates to Our Economic Forecasts | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 19, 2019

We’ve lowered our 2019 forecasts for Fed policy moves, GDP growth, and rates.

The Rally Continues | Weekly Market Commentary | February 19, 2019

The market rally continues, with stocks off to their best year’s start since 1991.

Key Takeaways from Fourth Quarter Earnings | Weekly Market Commentary | February 11, 2019

Earnings growth for the fourth quarter is tracking to a solid 17%, above prior estimates but below the pace of the previous three quarters.

Feeling Confident? | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 11, 2019

Consumer confidence has dropped sharply, primarily from what we see as temporary factors.

Market Insight Monthly | January 2019

January’s reports painted a picture of a solid economy struggling with global uncertainty.

Stocks Warm Up In January | Client Letter by John Lynch | February 7, 2019

The February client letter discusses positive developments in the economy and markets in January.

That Was the Easy Part | Weekly Market Commentary | February 4, 2019

Stocks posted their best January in more than 30 years after a historically bad December.

The Fed’s Policy U-Turn | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 4, 2019

The Federal Reserve (Fed) just delivered a widely expected but important monetary policy decision.

The Fed Faces Market Fears | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 28, 2019

The Fed’s signals on future policy in this week’s meeting will be especially telling.

Is the Fed Almost Done? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 28, 2019

We expect the Fed to pause interest rate hikes this week.

Brexit Clouds Linger | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2019

Following last week’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit plan, we discuss what’s next for the United Kingdom and possible market implications.

Main Street’s Growing Uncertainty | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 22, 2019

The Beige Book Barometer dropped to a nine-month low.

Portfolio Compass | January 16, 2019

Positions maintained (no changes); updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes.

Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview: From Great to Good | Weekly Market Commentary | January 14, 2019

S&P 500 earnings growth will slow in the fourth quarter but is still expected to be strong.

A Historic Government Shutdown | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 14, 2019

We believe this government shutdown will have limited long-term ramifications for economic growth.

Market Insight Quarterly | Fourth Quarter 2018

Stocks slide most since 2011, even amid solid economic data.

Market Insight Monthly | December 2018

Economic trends generally improved in December, even amid some of the most significant financial market volatility of the bull market.

A New Year’s Perspective | Client Letter by John Lynch | January 10, 2019

Our January Client Letter discusses the emotional toll of a challenging market environment, while reinforcing our confidence in the fundamentals supporting the economy and markets.

A Wild Week in Review | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 7, 2019

We still see a solid U.S. economy struggling with trade tensions, but far from recessionary territory.

Lower Valuations Offer Long-Term Opportunity | Weekly Market Commentary | January 7, 2019

This week, we look at stock valuations to try to gauge the potential opportunity for stocks.

Market Fears and Economic Realities | Weekly Economic Commentary | December 31, 2018

Increased uncertainty around policy risks has contributed to sharp market declines.

That Sure Felt Like a Bear | Weekly Market Commentary | December 31, 2018

The S&P 500 Index came about as close as possible to the technical definition of a bear market without officially registering one.

Recent Volatility in the Markets | Client Letter by John Lynch | December 21, 2018

Client letter sharing perspective and discussing guidance from Outlook 2019.

Portfolio Compass | December 19, 2018

Downgraded small growth from neutral to negative/neutral; Downgraded small value from neutral/positive to neutral; Upgraded large growth from negative/neutral to neutral; Downgraded hedged foreign bonds from neutral to negative/neutral.

Outlook 2019: Executive Summary

The Executive Summary highlights key themes and LPL Research economic and market forecasts from Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets

Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL | Client Letter by John Lynch | December 17, 2018

The LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets provides insightful commentary for the year ahead.

Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets

The LPL Research team proudly presents the LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, with investment insights and market guidance for the year ahead.

Market Insight Monthly | November 2018

Economic trends generally improved in November, even after strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the last two quarters.

Retest | Weekly Market Commentary | December 10, 2018

We view last week’s market decline as a retest of the October–November lows.

U.S.-China Trade Deal, One Week Later | Weekly Economic Commentary | December 10, 2018

Conflicting messages from government officials led investors to question initial trade-deal optimism.

Looking Ahead to 2019 | Client Letter by John Lynch | December 6, 2018

We reflect on the 2018 markets and provide our expectations for 2019.

Fed Shows Flexibility | Weekly Economic Commentary | December 3, 2018

Fed fund futures are more dovish than the Fed’s dots, but the Fed is treading carefully.

Strong Week Ahead of Big Weekend | Weekly Market Commentary | December 3, 2018

Last week’s stock market rally was driven by optimism (now clearly warranted) surrounding U.S.-China trade talks and a more dovish Fed.

The Current State of Capex | Weekly Economic Commentary | November 26, 2018

We expect robust capex growth to resume once U.S. businesses get more clarity around trade.

Corporate America Impresses Again | Weekly Market Commentary | November 26, 2018

Third quarter earnings season was again very impressive, with S&P 500 Index earnings growing 28% year over year, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2010.

Portfolio Compass | November 14, 2018

Upgraded our view of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from neutral to neutral/positive; Downgraded our view of bank loans to neutral from neutral/positive.

Trade Check-In | Weekly Economic Commentary | November 12, 2018

We still believe trade’s economic impact will be limited, but the indirect consequences should be monitored.

Midterm Takeaways | Weekly Market Commentary | November 12, 2018

Getting past the midterm election removes uncertainty and enables investors to focus on fundamentals, which we believe can be positive for stocks.

Market Insight Monthly | October 2018

Overall, October’s economic reports reflected solid U.S. economic growth and manageable inflationary pressures.

Midterms and the Markets | Client Letter by John Lynch | November 7, 2018

When it comes to elections, the markets seem to seek clarity above all else; yet there are some policy implications to consider. We break down the 2018 midterm elections in this latest Client Letter.

Rising Wages and the U.S. Economy | Weekly Economic Commentary | November 5, 2018

We believe wage growth (and labor costs) will remain manageable amid the Fed’s gradual approach and changing labor market dynamics.

The Bright Side | Weekly Market Commentary | November 5, 2018

Within the four-year presidential cycle, this quarter and the following two quarters next year are historically the best for stocks.

Another Tough Week | Weekly Market Commentary | October 29, 2018

The S&P 500 fell about 4% last week amid a myriad of concerns, among them possible peak earnings and a potentially overly aggressive Federal Reserve.

Third-Quarter GDP Preview | Weekly Economic Commentary | October 22, 2018

The U.S. economy likely grew at a moderate to strong pace in the third quarter.

Focusing on Fundamentals | Weekly Economic Commentary | October 29, 2018

As financial markets fluctuate, we encourage investors to focus on solid U.S. economic fundamentals.

Earnings Update: So Far So Good | Weekly Market Commentary | October 22, 2018

With about one-fifth of third quarter earnings results in, the numbers have been solid thus far despite tariffs and increasing wage pressures.

Portfolio Compass | October 17, 2018

Updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes.

Benign Inflation Readings Support Fed’s Gradual Approach | Weekly Economic Commentary | October 15, 2018

Several new readings on inflation last week confirmed that price pressures remain manageable, supporting a continued gradual path of rate hikes for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Perspective on Market Volatility | Weekly Market Commentary | October 15, 2018

We share our perspective on the sell-off and discuss where stocks may go from here.

Putting Recent Volatility in Context | Client Letter by John Lynch | October 11, 2018

This client letter addresses the recent market volatility. Although it can be difficult to experience these declines and volatility may continue in the near term, the underlying fundamentals of the economy and markets are positive and we see potential for...

Market Insight Monthly | September 2018

Overall, economic reports released in September—mostly reflecting economic activity in August—indicated solid U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures, though wage gains bear monitoring.

Global Economic Outlook: U.S. and EM Poised to Underpin Growth | Weekly Economic Commentary | October 8, 2018

We expect global growth to slow in 2019 but remain strong enough to continue to support the broad global economy and markets.

Global Equity Market Outlook: Favor U.S.; Stick with EM | Weekly Market Commentary | October 8, 2018

U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities.

Key Factors to Watch in Q4 | Client Letter by John Lynch | October 4, 2018

In this latest client letter, we look back on the strong growth and stock gains from the third quarter, and discuss key factors to watch as we kick off the last three months of the year.

Best Quarter for Stocks Since Q4 2013 | Weekly Market Commentary | October 1, 2018

We’ve just wrapped up the best quarter for the S&P 500 Index since the fourth quarter of 2013, despite a variety of challenges.

The Dot Disconnect | Weekly Economic Commentary | October 1, 2018

While the Fed raised its policy rate last week, the more important meeting outcome was the Fed’s guidance on future policy.

The Dow Joins the Party | Weekly Market Commentary | September 24, 2018

When the Dow hits a fresh record high after a long drought, as it did last week, it tends to be followed by above-average performance.

Fed Meeting Preview | Weekly Economic Commentary | September 24, 2018

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting will be a focal point for markets this week.

Portfolio Compass | September 19, 2018

Positions maintained (no changes); updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes.

Beige Book: Window on Main Street | Weekly Economic Commentary | September 18, 2018

Beige book suggests continued moderate economic growth.

Midterm Mayhem? | Weekly Market Commentary | September 18, 2018

Policy uncertainty surrounding the upcoming midterm elections may lead to an increase in near-term market volatility.

Market Insight Monthly | August 2018

Overall, economic reports released in August—mostly reflecting economic activity in July—indicated solid U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures, even though evidence grew of some cooling from trade concerns.

Manufacturing Health at 14-Year High | Weekly Economic Commentary | September 10, 2018

Strong manufacturing growth is a bellwether for overall economic health.

Is EM Washed Out? | Weekly Market Commentary | September 10, 2018

Sentiment on emerging markets (EM) is reaching levels consistent with a contrarian buy signal.

Plenty of Positives | Client Letter by John Lynch | September 6, 2018

This Client Letter discusses recent positive indicators for U.S. economy and stocks, which we believe outweigh some areas for investor concern.

Productivity on the Rise | Weekly Economic Commentary | September 4, 2018

Signs of sustainable productivity growth are emerging, thanks to solid economic fundamentals and the tailwind of fiscal stimulus.

S&P Sector Switcheroo | Weekly Market Commentary | September 4, 2018

S&P 500 GICS sectors will undergo a significant shift later this month with a big revamp and expansion of the telecommunication services sector.

Powell’s Policy Pragmatism | Weekly Economic Commentary | August 27, 2018

Recent Fed communication reinforced its view that gradual hikes were the appropriate response to a strong economy, near-target inflation, and balanced risks.

Another Impressive Show from Corporate America | Weekly Market Commentary | August 27, 2018

Second quarter earnings season was quite impressive, with S&P 500 Index earnings growing 25% year over year.

Turkey’s Crisis and Economic Growth | Weekly Economic Commentary | August 20, 2018

It has been a complicated year for emerging markets (EM).

Is Turkey a Reason to Sell EM? | Weekly Market Commentary | August 20, 2018

We think emerging markets (EM) contagion fears resulting from the crisis in Turkey may be overdone.

Portfolio Compass | August 15, 2018

Positions maintained (no changes); updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes.

Longest Bull Market Ever | Weekly Market Commentary | August 13, 2018

The bull market continues to defy the skeptics and is now nearing a major milestone.

Does ‘Headline’ Inflation Tell the Whole Story | Weekly Economic Commentary | August 13, 2018

As the U.S. economic recovery moves into its later stages, inflation has emerged at a surprisingly slow and inconsistent rate.

Market Insight Monthly | July 2018

Economic reports released in July 2018, largely reflecting economic activity in June, provided evidence of accelerating U.S. economic growth over the second quarter.

The Fed’s Policy Conundrum | Bond Market Perspectives | August 7, 2018

The Fed announced last Wednesday that it would keep interest rates unchanged, a decision that markets largely expected.

July Employment Report: Healthy Job Gains Despite Missing Expectations | Weekly Economic Commentary | August 6, 2018

The Labor Department’s July jobs report, released on Friday, August 3, confirmed that the labor market remains healthy.

Focus FAQs | Weekly Market Commentary | August 6, 2018

We share the most frequently asked questions from Focus 2018, on topics such as trade tensions, emerging markets, growth versus value, and the yield curve.

Recapping the Latest Earnings and GDP Reports | Client Letter by John Lynch | August 2, 2018

As we look back on the month of July, the standout stories for the summer so far have been strong U.S. economic growth and surging corporate profits. This latest Client Letter recaps these reports and emphasizes the importance of focusing...

U.S. GDP Growth Tops 4% in Q2: A Look Behind the Numbers | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 30, 2018

The economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter, topping 4% for the first time since the third quarter of 2014.

Go Active? | Weekly Market Commentary | July 30, 2018

Active management may be poised for a comeback.

Powell Says Fed on Track…For Now | Bond Market Perspectives | July 24, 2018

In testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script, saying little to alter the Fed’s perceived course.

Second Quarter GDP Preview | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 23, 2018

The economy may have posted unusually strong growth of near 4% or more in the second quarter.

Another Very Strong Earnings Season Expected | Weekly Market Commentary | July 23, 2018

Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings for the second quarter.

Portfolio Compass | July 19, 2018

Downgraded large/small foreign equities to negative/neutral from neutral. Downgraded industrial metals to neutral from neutral/positive. Downgraded agriculture to negative/neutral from neutral.

Bonds May Feel Continued Pressure | Bond Market Perspectives | July 17, 2018

Rates may be poised to rise further in the second half of 2018, though likely at a slower pace than the first half of the year.

Global Economic Outlook Remains Strong on U.S. Growth Prospects | Weekly Economic Commentary | July 16, 2018

The global growth story remains steady in 2018, with growth forecast at 3.8%.

2018 Midyear Stock Market Outlook: Second Half Rally? | Weekly Market Commentary | July 16, 2018

The current environment looks favorable for strong earnings and stock gains.

Midyear Outlook 2018: Executive Summary

The Executive Summary highlights key themes and LPL Research economic and market forecasts from Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens

Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens | Client Letter by John Lynch | July 11, 2018

The LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens provides insightful commentary to help you navigate the rest of the year.

Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens

The LPL Research team proudly presents the Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens, with investment insights and market guidance covering the rest of the year.

Market Insight Monthly | June 2018

"Economic reports released in June 2018, largely reflecting economic activity in May, showed continued solid economic growth in the U.S. and provided evidence of a pickup in growth from seasonally weak first quarter levels."

Trade Fears Inch Higher | Bond Market Perspectives | June 26, 2018

Although we believe investors will be spared an all-out trade war, spreads across fixed income sectors are pointing to heightened trade concerns.

U.S. – China Trade Update | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 25, 2018

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated in the last month, but negotiation still remains the main path forward.

Trade Tensions Playbook | Weekly Market Commentary | June 25, 2018

Escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment.

Central Bank Reaction Recap | Bond Market Perspectives | June 19, 2018

The BOJ meeting last week was a nonevent, as expected, but last week's Fed and ECB meetings gave investors some minor surprises.

Capex Rising: Means, Motive, and Opportunity | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 18, 2018

Increased business capital expenditures, or “capex,” remain one of the most important pieces for improving the long-term growth trajectory of the U.S. economy.

Playing the Capex Theme | Weekly Market Commentary | June 18, 2018

Capital investment is accelerating, a trend we believe should continue.

Portfolio Compass | June 13, 2018

Downgraded precious metals view to negative/neutral from neutral.

Investment-Grade Corporates: Is the Worst Behind Us? | Bond Market Perspectives | June 12, 2018

Investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds have been the worst-performing high-quality bond segment year to date.

Fed Preview: Connect the Dots | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 11, 2018

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates for the second time this year at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Time for Value to Shine? | Weekly Market Commentary | June 11, 2018

After the longest run of outperformance of growth stocks ever, we think value may be poised for a comeback.

Market Insight Monthly | May 2018

"Economic reports released in May 2018, largely reflecting economic activity in April, showed continued solid economic growth in the U.S."

“Keeping an Eye on Global Activity” Client Letter by John Lynch | June 7, 2018

Overall, we think the global economic backdrop, particularly in the U.S., remains intact. Although the situation in Italy is an ongoing risk worth monitoring, we don’t believe it indicates a change in the trajectory of the global economy.

Lessons from Quitaly | Bond Market Perspectives | June 5, 2018

Market reaction to Italy’s political woes was swift and pronounced, but ultimately overdone.

“Europe Coming Up Short” | Weekly Market Commentary | June 4, 2018

When we compare Europe’s economic and corporate fundamentals with those in the U.S., even factoring in valuations, we think Europe comes up short.

Jobs Growth Stabilizing, Wages Rising | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 4, 2018

The May jobs data were generally positive, and job growth may be accelerating after slowing since 2015.

“Municipal Check-In” | Bond Market Perspectives | May 29, 2018

Municipal bonds have outperformed broad high-quality fixed income since early 2017.

“Is Small Cap Strength Sustainable?” | Weekly Market Commentary | May 29, 2018

After a great start to 2018, we believe small caps’ strength to continue.

Fed Minutes Wrap-Up | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 29, 2018

The Fed minutes’ emphasis on a symmetric inflation target reassured markets that the pace of rate hikes would remain gradual.

“Emerging Market Debt: Risks Remain” | Bond Market Perspectives | May 22, 2018

Signs of emerging market debt (EMD) weakness have been evident since late April.

“Five Keys to Emerging Market Outlook” | Weekly Market Commentary | May 21, 2018

We continue to prefer emerging market (EM) equities in tactical asset allocations.

“Dollar Outlook” | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 21, 2018

The U.S. dollar has staged a strong rally recently after significant weakness in 2017.

Portfolio Compass | May 16, 2018

“Updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes.”

“The Impact of 3%” | Bond Market Perspectives | May 15, 2018

The 10-year Treasury yield recently crossed the psychologically important 3% level for the first time since December 2013.

“Impressive Earnings Season” | Weekly Market Commentary | May 14, 2018

In this week’s commentary, we recap the outstanding near-complete first quarter earnings season, highlight some of the key themes, and show why a potential peak in earnings growth is not cause for immediate concern.

“Oil Bounces, But Still in Balanace” | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 14, 2018

Consumers will feel the impact of higher oil prices, but the effect may be small compared to the benefits of a strong job market and the new tax law.

Market Insight Monthly | April 2018

"Economic reports released in April 2018, largely reflecting economic activity in March, showed continued solid economic growth in the U.S."

“To Sell or Not to Sell: The China/Treasuries Dilemma” | Bond Market Perspectives | May 8, 2018

China could sell its holdings of Treasuries, potentially leading to higher U.S. rates.

“Data Deluge” | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 7, 2018

Economic data received over the first week of May indicated steady economic growth with only marginal risk of overheating."

“Don’t Sell in May” | Weekly Market Commentary | May 7, 2018

The May through October period has historically been the weakest six months for equities.

“Opportunity Amidst Seasonal Weakness” Client Letter by John Lynch | May 3, 2018

"May’s arrival has brought warmer weather to many parts of the U.S. (finally), but it also brings talk of one of the most widely cited stock market clichés in history: “Sell in May and go away.”

“Search for Income: Yield Opportunities Improve” | Bond Market Perspectives | May 1, 2018

The Bond Market Perspectives "Search for Income" is a quarterly guide to our top ideas for income-producing strategies.

“A Closer Look at First Quarter GDP” | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 30, 2018

"The economy posted solid first quarter growth of 2.3% in the face of seasonal headwinds."

“Valuation Check-In” | Weekly Market Commentary | April 30, 2018

We make the case that stock valuations are reasonable when considering interest rates and inflation.

“Yield Curve Subplot” | Bond Market Perspectives | April 24, 2018

The yield curve has continued to flatten; however, because rates are rising simultaneously, it is a less ominous indicator for the economy relative to if yields were falling.

“Myth Busting” | Weekly Market Commentary | April 23, 2018

There are several market myths related to certain market indicators which have the tendency to distract investors from what really matters in assessing market opportunities.

“Beige Book” | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 23, 2018

"Based on our analysis, the Beige Book continues to deliver a positive view of the U.S. economy."

Portfolio Compass | April 18, 2018

"Updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes."

“Keeping It Real” | Bond Market Perspectives | April 17, 2018

“After a substantive increase in the first months of 2018, real yields have slowly declined, a positive indicator for stock and bond markets, as they suggest lower true cost of debt for domestic companies.”

“Did Stocks Bottom?” | Weekly Market Commentary | April 16, 2018

“The February 2018 market correction caught many investors off guard, but the longer-term trend remains higher.”

“Inflation In-Depth” | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 16, 2018

"CPI and PPI moved higher in March, but inflation remains manageable."

“Jobs and Trade in Perspective” | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 9, 2018

"Despite last week's market weakness, we believe the economy remains on positive footing."

“Solid Economy Overshadowed by Escalating Trade Tensions” | Market Insight Quarterly | First Quarter 2018

“Spreads Signal Stability” | Bond Market Perspectives | April 10, 2018

“Spreads across various sectors of fixed income are signaling that areas of recent stress are receding, a positive omen for bonds and stocks alike.”

Market Insight Monthly | March 2018

"Economic reports released in March 2018, largely reflecting economic activity in February, rebounded from subpar data released in February, putting the economy on track for solid but not spectacular first quarter growth. "

“First Quarter Earnings Preview: What to Watch” | Weekly Market Commentary | April 9, 2018

“We preview what we expect may be a very strong earnings season and highlight some key dynamics we will be watching.”

“Staying Focused on the Big Picture” Client Letter by John Lynch | April 5, 2018

"While the month of April has opened with some volatile market swings, we should remain focused on the underlying drivers that have a longer-term impact on the markets and economy."

“Tough Start for Fixed Income” | Bond Market Perspectives | April 3, 2018

“Despite a late-quarter rally, high-quality fixed income had a difficult start to 2018, but the ride over the remainder of the year could be smoother.”

“Time for April Showers?” | Weekly Economic Commentary | April 2, 2018

"April will include several significant events that have the potential to be market movers."

“First Quarter Marked by Return of Volatility” | Weekly Market Commentary | April 2, 2018

“This week’s Weekly Market Commentary recaps first quarter stock market performance, discusses some of the themes that were in play, and summarizes our outlook for the rest of the year.”

“LIBOR-OIS Spread Widening: What Lies Beneath?” | Bond Market Perspectives | March 27, 2018

“The spread between the three-month London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) and the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) has widened to its highest level since 2008.”

“The Stock Market’s Final Four Factors” | Weekly Market Commentary | March 26, 2018

“We share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2018: economic growth, earnings, trade policy, and the midterm elections.”

“Beige Book” | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 26, 2018

"TBased on our analysis, the Beige Book continues to deliver a positive view of the U.S. economy. "

“Fed Move Suggests Economy Is On Track” Client Letter by John Lynch | March 22, 2018

"Although sometimes markets react negatively to rate hikes, these increases tend to signal the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. economy."

“Long the Short End of the Curve” | Bond Market Perspectives | March 20, 2018

“Short-term high-quality bond yields have continued to increase since the lows seen in July 2016, and have moved sharply higher since September 2017.”

“Fed Preview” | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 19, 2018

"The Fed’s overall assessment of the economy is expected to improve."

“Will This Sixteen Be Sweet?” | Weekly Market Commentary | March 19, 2018

“In the spirit of March Madness, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the markets.”

Portfolio Compass | March 14, 2018

"Updates on LPL Research's views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes."

“High Yield Hesitation” | Bond Market Perspectives | March 13, 2018

"High yield has faced some headwinds thus far in 2018, but fundamentals remain solid."

“February Employment Report” | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 12, 2018

"The February employment report crushed expectations for the number of jobs created (313,000 versus the consensus expectation of 205,000), but wage growth moderated from the surprising January levels."

“Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs” | Weekly Market Commentary | March 12, 2018

“Our Five Forecasters are collectively indicating that further economic growth and stock market gains appear likely.”

Market Insight Monthly | February 2018

"Economic reports released in February 2018, largely reflecting economic activity in January, signaled continued steady growth though mixed with rising inflation."

“Rates’ New Range” | Bond Market Perspectives | March 6, 2018

"We believe the rise in rates over the last six months has the potential to stick."

“Tariff Turbulence” | Weekly Economic Commentary | March 5, 2018

"We believe any potential negative impact caused by the proposed tariffs in isolation will be small."

“The Bull Is 9, Can It Make 10?” | Weekly Market Commentary | March 5, 2018

“The bull market will celebrate its ninth birthday on March 9, 2018. This week, we look at some of our favorite bull market indicators and the signals that accompany them.”

“Tips on TIPS” | Bond Market Perspectives | February 27, 2018

"Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are sought after when inflation is expected to rise."

“March Madness for Central Banks” | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 26, 2018

"March brings several significant events that have the potential to be market movers."

“Raising 2018 Earnings Forecasts” | Weekly Market Commentary | February 26, 2018

“We have raised our 2018 S&P 500 EPS forecast from $147.50 to $152.50 and our S&P 500 year-end fair value target to 2950–3000.”

“Data Deluge Shows Steady Growth” | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 20, 2018

"Many important economic reports were released last week and collectively they showed continued strength in the U.S. economy."

“Out of the Woods?” | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2018

“Are we out of the woods yet?”

“Managing Interest Rate Risk” | Bond Market Perspectives | February 20, 2018

"Yield curve positioning and proper diversification remain prudent strategies to manage interest rate risk."

Search for Income | Q4 2017

The Search for Income publication is a quarterly guide to our top ideas for income-producing securities and strategies.

Portfolio Compass | February 14, 2018

“Upgraded industrial metals view from neutral to neutral/positive.”

“Why Own Bonds?” | Bond Market Perspectives | February 13, 2018

"With rising rates making high-quality fixed income more attractive, many fixed income investors may be asking, why own bonds?"

“Correction Perspectives” | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2018

“After an extraordinary two-year period of market calm, the major U.S. equity markets slipped into correction territory last week.”

“The Valentine’s Day Index” | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 12, 2018

"Low overall inflation again carried over to common Valentine’s Day gifts in 2017, with prices rising at or below the average pace."

Market Insight Monthly | January 2018

"January 2018 saw December’s trend of above-consensus economic reports taper off, though the data suggests strong underlying fundamentals in the U.S. economy, supported by solid consumer spending."

“Will Yields Keep Rising?” | Bond Market Perspectives | February 6, 2018

"Yields have started 2018 off on a volatile note, which has been somewhat painful and disconcerting for fixed income investors."

“Volatility During Healthy Markets” Client Letter by John Lynch | February 6, 2018

"Although it can be difficult to experience these declines, the underlying fundamentals of the economy and markets are pointing to the potential for continued growth in 2018 and beyond."

“Melt-up or Melt-down?” | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2018

“Friday’s sharp stock market decline might have led us to forget that just a few days ago many claimed the stock market was melting up.”

“GDP, PCE, and Jobs” | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 5, 2018

"The latest data on GDP, inflation, and the job market continue to paint a positive picture of the U.S. economy."

“The Fed Is Moving Forward” | Bond Market Perspectives | January 30, 2018

“Jerome Powell will take over as Fed chair on February 3 and may continue the path of data-dependent, gradual rate hikes laid out by his predecessor, Janet Yellen.”

“Records, Risk, and Returns” | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2018

“The recent lack of volatility in the U.S. stock market has been historic on many levels.”

“Beige Book: Window on Main Street” | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 22, 2018

"The Beige Book suggests continued moderate economic growth."

“Bond Market Not Stressing About Higher Yields” | Bond Market Perspectives | January 23, 2018

"Treasury yields have seen a significant increase since early September 2017, but credit markets aren’t showing any signs of stress."

“Fourth Quarter Earning Season: Off to a Good Start” | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2018

“We expect a solid fourth quarter earnings season and believe a 14–16% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings is achievable.”

“Global Equity Market Outlook: Favor U.S. and EM” | Weekly Market Commentary | January 16, 2018

“2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM.”

“A Global View on Fixed Income” | Bond Market Perspectives | January 16, 2018

"Dollar weakness in 2017 helped propel unhedged foreign developed bonds and U.S. dollar-denominated EMD to strong performance."

“Global Growth Expected to Continue in 2018” | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 16, 2018

"Global economic growth was stronger than expected in 2017, and we  anticipate moderate acceleration in 2018."

“Better Growth, New Tax Law Drive Strong Finish to the Year” | Market Insight Quarterly | Fourth Quarter 2017

"Data point to a U.S. economy that has picked up some speed."

Market Insight Monthly | December 2017

"Economic reports released in December 2017, which mostly reflect economic activity in November, largely exceeded economists’ consensus expectations and suggested continued steady growth in the U.S. economy. "

“Fixed Income in 2018: Still Under Pressure” | Bond Market Perspectives | January 9, 2018

"We look back at U.S. fixed income performance in 2017, while exploring what themes may persist in 2018."

“Will a Strong 2017 Carry Over into 2018?” | Weekly Market Commentary | January 8, 2018

“We close the book on a solid 2017 for U.S. stocks while tipping our caps to a strong start to 2018.”

“2017 Was Good for the Economy; 2018 Could Be Even Better” | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 8, 2018

“This week, we provide an overview of a solid 2017 for the economy.”

“Investment Implications of the New Tax Law: Economy at a Glance” | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 2, 2018

“The new law is intended to boost economic activity and simplify the U.S. tax code.”

“Investment Implications of the New Tax Law: Equities at a Glance” | Weekly Market Commentary | January 2, 2018

“The new law is intended to boost economic activity and simplify the U.S. tax code.”

“Investment Implications of the New Tax Law: Bonds at a Glance” | Bond Market Perspectives | January 2, 2018

"The new law is intended to boost economic activity and simplify the U.S. tax code."

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